Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
