A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
